All right, here's my take
Based on several meetings today, and on the announcement that the DGA and the AMPTP are going to “begin” negotiations, I think a plausible scenario is as follows:
Deal is announced between the DGA and the AMPTP within a week. (The DGA doesn’t begin negotiation until they’ve already reached a deal in smaller meetings). I’m told the DGA deal makes some progress towards what the WGA is asking for - not all the way, but baby steps.
For a brief period of time, the AMPTP sits back to gauge the resolve of the WGA rank and file to the news of the deal. Their hope is that enough members clamor for us to take the same deal that we cave and don’t hold fast. THIS IS A CRUCIAL TIME FOR THE GUILD TO DEMONSTRATE UNITY. As long as we sit tight…
AMPTP resumes negotiating with us, as there’s nothing else to do. We make incremental gains on the DGA deal…
… and we settle by mid-February.
There is a real sense now that the AMPTP never had any intention of making a deal with us. It was always going to be DGA first; they just hoped we’d crumble while we were waiting, which we didn’t do. The feeling now is that no one wants the Academy Awards to be cancelled - that just makes everyone look bad - and if a deal is made in February some semblance of a normal pilot season cycle can be retained.
However: we can’t forget about SAG, who in this scenario could play the role of the crazy cousin. At this point SAG is more militant, and less predictable, than we are. There’s hope, but no guarantee, that whatever deal we strike will be amenable to them. It might not be. A deal doesn’t get made with them well in advance of their June end of contract date, and things REALLY shut down. This actually lends credence to the argument that it’s just about time for the AMPTP to close with us: they hope we can control the crazy cousin.
So that’s my theory. Or wish. Whatever you want to call it.